EVALUATION OF THE INFLUENCE OF METEOROLOGICAL INFORMATION ON PROCUREMENT EFFICIENCY AND PERFORMANCE OF SOLAR ENERGY PROJECTS IN NIGERIA

Abstract

Nigeria, endowed with abundant solar radiation averaging 5.54 kWh/m²/day, faces a paradoxical energy crisis characterized by persistent grid unreliability and limited electricity access affecting approximately 90 million citizens. While solar photovoltaic (PV) technology presents a viable pathway toward sustainable electrification, project success hinges critically on the quality and utilization of meteorological information throughout the procurement lifecycle. This study examines the influence of meteorological data on procurement efficiency and project performance in Nigeria's solar energy sector. Through a systematic review of recent empirical studies, techno-economic assessments, and meteorological modeling approaches, the analysis reveals that accurate weather information fundamentally shapes system design optimization, technology selection, financial modeling, and operational planning. The study identifies significant challenges including dysfunctional meteorological stations, limited ground-based radiation measurements, and insufficient integration of climate variability considerations into procurement frameworks. Drawing on evidence from PVSyst simulations, HOMER Pro analyses, and machine learning forecasting models across Nigeria's diverse climatic zones, this study demonstrates that meteorological-informed procurement can enhance performance ratios by 12–15%, reduce levelized cost of energy to competitive levels, and improve investment returns. The findings underscore the imperative for developing robust meteorological infrastructure, adopting weather-aware optimization frameworks, and integrating climate risk assessment into solar energy procurement policies to accelerate Nigeria's energy transition.