ASSESSMENT OF POPULATION PRESSURE ON WATER SUPPLY RELIABILITY IN GOMBE METROPOLIS, GOMBE STATE, NIGERIA

Abstract

Water is essential for all forms of life, yet its availability is increasingly threatened by rapid population growth, particularly in urban centres of developing nations. This study assessed population pressure on water supply reliability in Gombe Metropolis, Gombe State, Nigeria. The research employed a mixed-methods approach, utilizing population data from the National Population Commission spanning two decades (2006–2025), water supply records from the Gombe State Water Corporation, and structured questionnaires administered to 400 residents across the metropolis. Time series analysis, Mann-Kendall rank statistics, and Spearman's rank correlation coefficient were used to analyse the relationship between population dynamics and water supply patterns. The findings revealed that Gombe Metropolis experienced a remarkable population increase from 312,467 in 2006 to 630,413 in 2025, representing a 102% growth rate. Conversely, water supply volumes remained erratic and failed to demonstrate any commensurate upward trajectory, fluctuating between 5,122 m³ and 10,123 m³ annually without a clear increasing trend. Spearman's rank correlation coefficient (-0.065) indicated a weak negative correlation between population growth and water supply, confirming that water supply variations are largely independent of demographic changes. The per capita water availability stands at a critically low 10.36 litres per capita per day, far below the Nigerian national target of 60–100 LPCD and the WHO minimum recommendation of 50 LPCD. This severe deficit has forced residents to rely on expensive alternative sources, with households spending upwards of N30, 000 monthly on water procurement. The study concludes that population pressure has significantly compromised water supply reliability in Gombe Metropolis, creating a scenario where demand consistently outstrips supply. The situation is exacerbated by infrastructural deficiencies, operational inefficiencies, and geological challenges that complicate groundwater access. Urgent interventions are required, including expansion of treatment plant capacity, investment in distribution networks, adoption of water conservation strategies, and implementation of integrated water resource management frameworks to ensure sustainable water security for the growing population.